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Prediction for CME (2026-02-16T14:08:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-02-16T14:08Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44698/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2026-02-16T14:08Z. This CME is also visible as a very faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2 following earlier, faster CME: 2026-02-16T13:23Z. The source of this CME is possibly related to the same eruption that resulted in CME: 2026-02-16T13:23Z. The main eruption is best seen in SDO AIA 171 and SDO AIA 304 starting around 2026-02-16T12:18Z spanning S30E15 to S10W05. There are a couple of smaller portions of the eruption that could be responsible for this CME. The first is an area of dimming that is deflected slightly to the north best seen in SDO AIA 193. The second is an area of dimming south of AR 14373 that follows the main eruption. It is also best seen in SDO AIA 193. In real time, the original analysis of this CME was complicated by gaps in the SOHO and STEREO A downlink schedules. ARRIVAL: A possible glancing blow from this CME could be indicated in the solar wind at L1 by a weak/unclear ICME arrival signature characterized by an enhancement in magnetic field ~2026-02-20T22:35Z, with an increase of Btotal from 7nT to 15nT, and increases in solar wind speed (from approximately 460 km/s 520 km/s), followed by a drop in temperature and density. This arrival signature is soon followed by an interplanetary shock seen at 2026-02-21T14:26Z which is likely associated with a coronal hole high speed stream.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-02-20T22:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-19T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/44703/1
Model Inputs:
2026-02-16T14:08:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=455.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2026-02-16T21:46Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-02-19T11:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-02-17T13:21Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 97.72 hour(s)
Difference: 35.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-02-16T20:52Z

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